This course provides an overview of the fundamentals, from performing common calculations to conducting Bayesian analysis with Excel. In cell E5 I'll type an equal sign and we are multiplying the probability of a blue cab which is in cell B7 How to Apply Bayes' Theorem in Excel - Statolog If the cab is actually blue but reported as green we need to perform a different calculation. Additional Resource The probability they are correct is in cell B9 so we're multiplying B6 by B9 press enter and we get 68%. The following formula shows how to apply Bayes' Theorem in Excel: For example, if we know the following probabilities: P(cloudy) = 0.40 P(rain) = 0.20 P(cloudy | rain) = 0.85 Then we can simply plug these into the cells in Excel: This tells us that if it's cloudy outside on a given day, the probability that it will rain that day is 0.425 or 42.5%. Home Calculating Bayesian probabilities in ExcelĮxample: Bayes' Theorem in Excel.
